Anyone who thinks the recent run up of the shares of Penn National Gaming (PENN) is attributable to anything but the overheated sports betting gold rush needs an adjustment from the neck up. It's sad in the sense because taken apart as a pure casino play, Penn belongs in any well-balanced gaming portfolio. And it’s also a head scratcher that investors and analysts alike who see sports betting as lifting the company into the nose bleed ranks have overvalued the sports betting sector for the moment. Some think Penn’s Barstoolies will propel it into to the price targets some analysts have pegged in the 70s. We’re not so certain.

The PA September sports betting numbers are in. On the surface they show a record-setting monthly handle of $463m up from $355m in August. Online betting’s share was 89%. During the first week of action, Barstool-related downloads seemed buoyant. The “Stoolies” app took in $29m in bets, ~7.2% of the monthly total. The Roundhill ETF (BETZ) estimated that rolled out to a 30-day stretch. Barstool could generate gross handle somewhere in the mid-teens share. At the same time, market leaders moved as follows:

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