3 Reasons Pfizer's Recent Drop Could Make It a Buying Opportunity

10/7/16

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Drug giant Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is back full circle. After years of Wall Street speculation about whether the company would split into stand-alone parts, CEO Ian Read recently announced management's decision: no split.

You could almost hear the collective gnashing of teeth by investment bankers, who thereby lost millions of dollars in transaction fees. But let's not waste any tears on that group, because this stock is back in the game. With Pfizer down almost 10% from its August high, shares are approaching the point where they present an opportunity for long-term investors. That's particularly true for income seekers, because Pfizer's dividend now yields 3.5%, the third-highest dividend in drug stocks.

Of course, like practically every big pharma, Pfizer has struggled with the loss of exclusivity on key drugs -- notably Lipitor, once the best-selling drug of all time. But Pfizer has introduced a number of fast-selling therapies recently, and its pipeline and mergers and acquisitions provide major growth opportunities.

Let's quickly review three reasons to buy as well as two near-term risks.

Appealing dividend for yield-starved investors

Only two major drug manufacturers offer a higher dividend yield than Pfizer:GlaxoSmithKline at 5.1%, and Sanofi at 4.4%. But there are questions about the safety of Glaxo's superior dividend, with its lead drug Advair facing the risk of generic competition in one to three years. And Sanofi's stock is down in the dumps, with its key diabetes market franchise under pressure from heavy competition and patents on best-seller insulin Lantus having expired.

Meanwhile, a 3.5% dividend is nothing to sneeze at, not in today's yield-starved world. While nothing beats Johnson & Johnson's 53-year track record of dividend increases, here's Pfizer's comparative performance on other key dividend metrics:

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DATA SOURCE: FACTSET. TABLE BY AUTHOR.

Blockbuster revenue from superstar drugs

Pfizer's new drugs are providing more than protection against various diseases; they are providing generous protection for Pfizer's growth and earnings as well.

Pfizer's heavy-hitter breast cancer med Ibrance looks set to be a $4 billion drug. Last quarter, it generated $514 million globally, which was not too shabby for its fourth quarter of commercial availability. Assuming Ibrance can be expanded to new indications -- which seems likely based on its outsized success in its phase 3 Paloma trials -- this drug is just getting started.

Also showing up strong last quarter, and likely in future quarters, was Eliquis, for stroke prevention, and Xeljanz, for rheumatoid arthritis. But it's Pfizer's Prevnar-led vaccine franchise that is doing the heavy lifting right now. Going back to full-year 2015, the franchise notched $6.25 billion in revenue. Comparatively, Merck KGaA's HPV vaccines trailed at a far-distant second place of $2.47 billion a year.

Pfizer's vaccines showed huge 40% year-over-year growth (or more) each quarter in 2015. While growth slowed in 2016, Prevnar received expanded FDA approval in adults 19 to 49 this July. That could see it begin ramping back up again.

Pfizer's fast-growing therapies are not just making up for patent losses; they led the new-drug division to 17% operational growth year over year in the second quarter. Overall, the division's revenue clocked in at $13.1 billion, a year-over-year change of 11% over $11.9 billion in the same period last year.

Pipeline and acquisitions recharging the batteries

Long-term growth in a company such as Pfizer is built around its pipeline and acquisitions. Fortunately for the drug maker, it has one of the largest pipelines in the industry, with over 90 clinical trials ongoing.

Of the nine drugs in registration phase, several should provide near-term catalysts. ten best stocks for investors to buy right now… and Pfizer wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.

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