Summary
- In recent presentations, Cel-Sci portrays its insiders as buying shares in the lead up to Phase 3 Multikine trial results, implying confidence in the ongoing Phase 3 trial.
- Not presented, however, is that the CEO and other insiders have exercised warrants and sold nearly 2 million shares since 2018.
- The value of shares sold over the last 2 plus years has outweighed the CEO's share purchases by a factor of more than 10.
- A long time bull thesis has been that management "must know the results will be good and are therefore buying shares". This under-disclosed insider selling data infers otherwise.
- The "Extended Trial Duration" bull thesis is also discussed and questioned.
I have previously written about Cel-Sci (CVM) and the ongoing Phase 3 Multikine trial which is due to release trial data shortly. My previous article outlined the challenges the company has faced to date, and (in this author's opinion) the massive hurdles that the company will face in getting the BLA ultimately approved by the FDA.
The company recently created an investor presentation (page 31) where they show "Key Events" over the last 2 or so years.
Of the 11 identified items, 4 were the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) recommending the Multikine trial continue (readers are reminded that the trial has been in data monitoring mode for nearly 4 years now, and that this recommendation does not imply safety or efficacy of the treatment). The other 7 "Key Events" are insider buys (referred to here as "Investments") by the CEO and other company directors/officers.
A more detailed view can be found on Nasdaq's website which shows these buys by insider. A summary of all Insider activity is shown below with the company highlighted "Investments" grouped and shaded together.
(Nasdaq Insider data and author's cost/proceeds calculation)
Totaling up all data available, Insiders have bought 550,745 shares at a cost of $967,251 and sold 18,474 shares for proceeds of $133,009, as shown below.
