• Philip Morris stock has increased along with the general market.
• Five reasons indicate its recovery was unwarranted.
• Forecast includes significant downside risk.
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Since Philip Morris International (PM) plunged in late December, its stock price has mostly recovered, outperforming that of its peer, Altria Group (MO):

Data by YCharts

This recovery, however, is unjustified for the reasons discussed in this article.

Declining Unit Sales

Per the company's most recent earnings release, cigarette shipment volume of 190.2 billion units dropped by 6.1 billion units or 3.1 percent from the year-ago quarter. Even the heated tobacco unit shipment volume of 12.2 billion units dropped by 3.5 billion units or 22.2 percent in the same period. So much for replacing cigarettes...

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